Mathematics Professor Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University in the United Kingdom says that the solar activity will drop by 60 percent in the 2030s. Such conditions will be similar to the latest mini ice age which began in 1645.
The professor used a new model of the solar cycle of the sun. She analyzed various solar activities such as the periodic change in solar radiation and sunspot over a period of eleven years. Zharkova presented her research last week at the National Astronomy meeting in Llanduno, Wales.
According to her the next Maunder Minimum will be shorter than the one which occurred in the 17th century. The last such phenomenon lasted five solar cycles of eleven years and took place between 1645 and 1715. At that time the surface of the sun curbed its heat-releasing magnetic storms. This occurred at the same time as the Little Ice Age which lasted from 1550 to 1850 in North America, Europe and Asia.
Georg Feulner from the Potsdam Institute on Climate Change Research is the deputy chair of the Earth system analysis research domain commented on this. He has also studied how a solar minimum would influence decrease would be the Earth’s climate. He commented on Zharkova’s prediction and said the following:
“The expected decrease in global temperature would be 0.1 degrees Celsius at most, compared to about 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times by the year 2030.”
So according to his research even if the solar activity is less intense and the temperatures will drop the insignificant in comparison with the anthropogenic global warming.
This paper led to speculations and debates. However the author declared that she did not mention anything about weather change so the reference to a mini ice age was not from her part. For now the predictions are not even published as a study.
A mini ice age could even happen because of volcanoes. It seems that volcanic eruptions emit particles in the air and these particles might reflect away solar radiation which was supposed to keep the surroundings warmer.
In spite of various debates and speculations there is a long way until humanity will be faced with such extreme climate changes.
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