Jeb Bush – contender for the US presidential elections come 2016 – made his first video appearance on Fox News’s in-house show „The Kelly Fire”. The interview explored the intentions of Mr. Bush and his opinion related to his alleged decline in the polls.
Since December 2014 when the Florida governor formed a committee to explore the idea of running for the most vetted White House position, no official candidacy was announced. Now, the initial excitement is simmering down to a decline in popularity and a more realistic approach of political analysts.
Last month, Fox News released polling results that indicated Senator Marco Rubio, also in the presidential race is enjoying a bump in popularity. After his April announcement, the race for GOP nomination placed him at 13 percent. The same poll place Jeb Bush at 9 percent. At the same time, a RealClearPolitics poll pooled 16 percent for Jeb Bush, just one percent in front of Marco Rubio. The advantage held by Jeb Bush so far seems to be declining by all accounts. In response to the polls, the GOP member stated that:
“The polls are totally irrelevant. I’m not a candidate yet. So everybody needs to take a chill pill on the polls until it gets closer.”
Sporting this relaxed attitude, Mr. Bush discussed several points with interview host, Mrs. Megyn Kelly. The immigration reform, Common Core and the political dynasty created by his family were common place topics.
Taking a swipe at the current president of the US, Barack Obama, Mr. Bush inferred that what is currently done with view to immigration reform is unconstitutional. However, as he supports lawful action, he sees an urgent need to address the issue of an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. Jeb Bush commented that legal status would be the desirable path of action for this group. Particularly when taking into consideration the children of illegal immigrants who are drawing all the counter effects of marginalization. Citizenship was however out of the question. Under current laws, deportation for a number of illegal immigrants is suspended. It is this particular aspect that Mr. Bush referred to when stating that he would undo bits of current executive actions. In this respect, Jeb Bush is placing himself against more conservative wings of GOP, opening himself up to criticism. Yet, it is this moderate stance that might bring the alleged candidate a great bump forward once the official candidacy is announced.
As a GOP frontrunner, Mr. Bush is experiencing the controversy common to political strategy. While many claim the advantages brought about by his moderate stance, stark disadvantages emerge equally.
He is the former governor of Florida State, boasting a moderate stance among conservative wings. His policy record shows that national-security issues and priority lists of GOP voters are in good hands. Fundraising works like a charm with GOP businesses and finance wings. The Bush family supporters are backing Jeb Bush as well.
So what are the problems the GOP frontrunner is facing?
Firstly, a changing party. The Republican Party changed face with a more populist approach. The emergence of the tea-party movement also altered the perception at large.
Secondly, the changing gender composition. GOP is becoming a predominantly male party.
Added up, these trends give the following results according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll. Jeb Bush may be the highest ranking choice for Republicans overall, yet he ranks better with women and with moderates. Tea-party supporters made up only six percent of voters.
Nonetheless, Jeb Bush finds himself on the safe side so far. It might be that the official candidacy is looming for long, yet, as a political move, this fares quite well. The outstanding fundraising abilities give Mr. Bush an important leverage. On the other hand, it must be taken into consideration that the conservative opposition is a conglomerate of splinters.
Against this background, we are all waiting for the unfolding of the events. New voters may emerge on the run, with the campaign just taking off the ground in some states.
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